Obligatory Prediction Post

Tonight, I am down with O.P.P., an obligatory post predicting the results of the coming day's election. Sorry for no fancy map graphics, but I'm not so well-versed in the blogging arts that I can conjure up such phantasms.

I'm just going to do the Presidential and the Senate races, because I don't really care about the House (though I suspect a gain of a few dozen seats for the Dems). I'm doing the calculations in my head, so someone please inform me if I omit a state or screw up my math.

(My thanks go primarily to fivethirtyeight.com for the information on which these predictions were made. It is a superlative political blog that may well be worth frequenting even after election season ends.)

Popular Vote: Obama 53% McCain 45% Other 2%
Electoral College:
Obama 393 (Kerry states + NV, CO, NM, IA, VA, NC, OH, FL, MO, IN, GA, MT)
McCain 145 (AK, AZ, UT, ID, WY, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, LA, MS, AL, SC, AR, TN, KY, WV)

58 D, 2 I, 40 R
Republican Pick-ups: None
Democratic Pick-ups: VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, OR, NC, MN, GA

In short, an Obama landslide and a filibuster-proof Senate majority. There's probably some wishful thinking here, but I suspect that being burned in the last two presidentials has made many on the left overly pessimistic.

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